The first meeting of the Termez Dialogue on Connectivity between Central and South Asia, dedicated to the theme "Building a Common Space for Peace, Friendship, and Prosperity," will be held in Termez on May 19-21, 2025. This meeting is expected to be attended by representatives of the foreign policy agencies of Central and South Asian countries, which are becoming the focus of world politics, as well as representatives of specialized UN organizations, international and regional organizations such as the CIS, the SCO, the CICA, and leading specialists and experts in relevant fields.

Central and South Asia have long been connected by reliable trade routes and have served as a bridge between the countries of the Middle East, Europe, and China. The peoples of this region share historical and civilizational commonalities, having repeatedly existed within common state associations in the past, as well as within a single political, economic, and humanitarian space. Over many centuries, relations between the two regions have been strengthened by numerous migration flows, intensive trade exchanges, rapid dissemination of scientific ideas, and cultural cross-pollination.

As a result of the spread of Zoroastrianism, Hinduism, Buddhism, and Islam in these regions, unique ethnocultural associations formed, which left a deep mark on human history.

The incorporation of the peoples of this region into such states as the Bactrian and Kushan kingdoms, the Turkic Khaganate, Khorasan and Transoxiana, the Ghaznavid, Timurid, and Mughal empires had a great influence on their historical, cultural, and political development. Common customs, traditions, lifestyles, and holidays were formed; spiritual values were created in Persian, Turkish, and Arabic. Medieval cities such as Bukhara, Samarkand, Termez, Balkh, Herat, Ghazni, Agra, and Delhi were shared centers of science.

The mutual competition of colonial powers negatively affected the traditional ties, trade, and cultural exchange of the peoples of Central and South Asia. Trade and economic relations in South Asia changed, and local supply systems, main industries, and economies became dependent on supplies from outside the region. This development weakened the traditional cultural ties between South Asia and Central Asia.

Today, jointly addressing existing problems that threaten peace and stability in the region is one of the important factors in the social, cultural, and economic development of these countries. Therefore, the renewal of their close historical ties is becoming increasingly relevant. Taking the above into account, the Termez Dialogue on the Connectivity between Central and South Asia is being organized.

The location chosen for the dialogue is connected to the geostrategic position of this city, situated at the crossroads of Central and South Asia, or at the intersection of interregional connectivity routes. Termez has long been a center of trade, economy, and crafts, serving as a link between the vast regions of Central and South Asia. Therefore, from a geopolitical perspective, the city can be considered a "natural bridge" connecting Central and South Asia, the most suitable place for bringing the peoples of the region closer together through its historical location and cultural heritage.

Currently, the countries of Central and South Asia represent a territory of global significance, with a population of more than 2 billion people and great educational potential. The region is experiencing high demographic growth, with the majority of the population consisting of young people, and there are enormous opportunities for realizing intellectual potential. While the population of South Asian countries is about 2 billion people, the number of people living in Central Asia is about 82 million, and the population of Central Asian states is growing year by year. The countries exhibit a "disparity in literacy levels." For example, among the leading countries of Central Asia, the average adult literacy rate is 99 percent, while in South Asia it is 74 percent.

One of the pressing problems is the uneven quality of education, insufficient coverage of preschool and higher education, especially among girls and residents of remote areas. In South Asia, youth unemployment remains high, and in some countries, this figure exceeds 40 percent. At the same time, the employment rate of women is one of the lowest in the world. In addition, the infrastructure of educational systems is not sufficiently developed, and the shortage of specialists and teacher qualifications also creates a number of problems.

In this context, cooperation in the field of science and education is becoming increasingly relevant. Scientific cooperation in the context of digitalization and geopolitical instability will allow for maintaining dialogue between academic circles. At the same time, limited academic mobility and weak coordination between scientific communities significantly hinder the development of states' potential in science, innovation, and technology.

In this regard, it is necessary to encourage joint research and innovation work, the organization of scientific and educational internships, experience exchange programs, the development of startups, and the holding of competitions.

The adoption of a joint program of academic and research exchanges under the auspices of UNESCO is becoming relevant. It is also necessary to launch an online platform between universities and research structures of the countries of Central and South Asia.

This will contribute to the creation of a sustainable regional network of scientific diplomacy, the formation of a common agenda in the field of education and technology, and the emergence of a unified scientific space.

The above-mentioned steps will serve as a powerful tool for the development of scientific diplomacy, which will facilitate interaction between the countries of the two regions.

From this point of view, the integration of intellectual resources in Central and South Asia, strengthening cooperation in the field of education, and developing cooperation platforms to improve the quality of education are important for the future of the region. The transformation of demographic potential into human capital is the main condition for sustainable development, economic growth, and a worthy place in global competition for both regions. In this regard, the development of education as one of the priority areas of regional cooperation, the development of partnerships for the exchange of experience and training of personnel in various countries is most relevant.

The countries of the region, in particular India and other South Asian countries, have in recent decades been occupying an increasingly prominent place in the world community in the field of science, technology, and innovation. Information technology, aeronautics, pharmaceutical production, and artificial intelligence are rapidly developing in India. For example, in 2014, the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) made history as the first Asian country to launch an artificial satellite into Mars orbit. In 2023, as part of the "Chandrayaan-3" project, a successful landing on the Moon's surface was achieved. These results demonstrate the country's independent and innovative capabilities in the scientific field.

In the field of information technology, India has become one of the world's largest IT outsourcing centers. Cities such as Bangalore, Hyderabad, Pune, and Chennai have become major hubs for Google, Microsoft, Amazon, IBM, Oracle, and many other multinational corporations. Every year, millions of specialists in technical and technological fields are trained in the country. Among India's higher education institutions are prestigious scientific centers like the Indian Institutes of Technology (IITs) and Indian Institutes of Science (IISc), which also rank highly in global ratings. It's worth noting that scientific research in artificial intelligence, bioengineering, quantum computing, and cybersecurity is widespread in the country.

Pakistan is also making progress in science, especially in nuclear energy and military technologies. Centers such as COMSATS University and the Pakistan Institute of Engineering and Applied Sciences (PIEAS) play a crucial role in the country's scientific development. In particular, government programs are being implemented to strengthen international cooperation in IT and cybersecurity.

In Bangladesh, alongside the textile and light industry, information technology is developing rapidly. Based on the "Digital Bangladesh" strategy, the country has widely implemented e-government, digital, and distance learning services. In 2021, over 120 IT parks were established in Bangladesh, demonstrating the country's commitment to digitalizing its economy.

Afghanistan's scientific and technological potential remains limited, and issues related to political stability are hindering its development. Nevertheless, some universities and educational institutions in the country, particularly Kabul University, participate in scientific projects with the support of various international educational organizations.

In this context, developing a joint strategy for digital connectivity between Central and South Asia is crucial. Adopting such a document will create significant opportunities for stimulating trade and investment, improving access to education and healthcare, strengthening regional cooperation, and increasing competitiveness on the global stage.

Coordinating efforts of Central and South Asian countries to widely implement the digital economy will contribute to improving digitalization processes in all spheres of life. Moreover, this will advance the implementation of the SDG initiative to ensure safe Internet access for the population and will open up great opportunities for education and medical services.

Overall, deepening digital connectivity between Central and South Asia will bring significant economic and social benefits to both regions, create a solid foundation for expanding trade, economic, energy, and transport links, and enhance the competitiveness of the region's states on the global arena.

In general, the Termez Dialogue is an important initiative that contributes to elevating the interaction between Central and South Asian states to a new level in the process of today's geopolitical and civilizational transformations. This dialogue, particularly in the fields of education, science, and new technologies, will stimulate, consolidate, and expand the intellectual potential of the two regions. This is because in both regions, the majority of the population consists of young people who show high interest in education, are capable of scientific research, and quickly adapt to digital technologies.

Today, countries such as India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh have achieved world-class successes in information technology, biotechnology, nuclear physics, medicine, and artificial intelligence, while Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and other Central Asian countries are also taking active measures to update scientific infrastructure, expand international cooperation, and implement modern educational projects. The Termez Dialogue is a unique opportunity to combine this experience and achievements, establish student and scholar exchanges, create joint research centers, and develop startups and innovative platforms in IT and STEM.

This dialogue has great historical significance in ensuring regional stability, creating a foundation for peace, progress, and intellectual development through science and education. The states of Central and South Asia have the potential to become the leading intellectual center in the entire Eurasian space based on the principle of mutual trust and shared future, integration in the spheres of education and science.

The formula of "comprehensive strategic partnership" in relations between Uzbekistan and Türkiye has in recent years ceased to be merely a diplomatic definition and increasingly reflects the actual substance of bilateral cooperation. Political dialogue, economic collaboration, humanitarian contacts, and transport connectivity form the stable pillars of systemic Uzbek-Turkish relations.

Analysis of the current state of partnership between the two countries confirms that Tashkent and Ankara have successfully established an institutional architecture for comprehensive strategic partnership. The key mechanism of bilateral interaction is the High-Level Strategic Cooperation Council co-chaired by the presidents of both states, with its fourth meeting scheduled for 2026. This format ensures systematic political dialogue and coordination of joint efforts across a broad spectrum of areas.

An important factor in the effective functioning of this institutional system is the active and trusting dialogue between Presidents Shavkat Mirziyoyev and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, maintained through regular telephone conversations and meetings on the sidelines of international events. Such dynamics impart a personal dimension to strategic interaction and create a favorable environment for deepening practical cooperation at the levels of governments, businesses, and expert communities of both countries.

Uzbek-Turkish relations gain an additional dimension through cooperation within the Organization of Turkic States (OTS). The participation of Tashkent and Ankara in this organization's activities allows bilateral initiatives to be elevated to a broader regional level and to find synergy with other countries of the Turkic world. OTS summits, including those held in 2025, have demonstrated participants' commitment to giving practical substance to cooperation from economy and transport to culture and digital development.

For Uzbekistan and Türkiye, this creates opportunities for advancing joint projects, harmonizing approaches to the regional agenda, and strengthening their positions in a broader geopolitical space.

Uzbek-Turkish cooperation carries significant regional and international dimensions. During a meeting in the "4+4" format in January 2026, the parties discussed regional and international issues, including the situations in Afghanistan, Gaza, Ukraine, and Syria. This demonstrates the two states' intention to coordinate their positions on key items of the international agenda.

Against the backdrop of strengthening political understanding and institutional consolidation of Uzbek-Turkish partnership, the economic component of bilateral relations acquires particular importance, becoming a key driver for their further development.

Trade and economic cooperation between Uzbekistan and Türkiye has demonstrated consistent progress in recent years. The target of raising bilateral trade turnover to USD 5 billion in the medium term and to USD 10 billion in the longer term remains relevant and reflects the potential of bilateral ties. Trade volume in 2025 exceeded USD 3 billion, indicating significant progress compared to figures from eight years prior.

Particularly noteworthy is the structure of economic interaction. The relationship involves not only trade but also the formation of a stable investment presence. By the end of 2025, more than 2,100 enterprises with Turkish capital participation were operating in the country a testament to the establishment of a sustainable Turkish business ecosystem in Uzbekistan and one of the highest figures among Uzbekistan's foreign partners. The dynamics of direct investment from Türkiye clearly confirm the progressive strengthening of this area of cooperation: USD 2.2 billion was invested in Uzbekistan in 2024, and USD 2.9 billion during January–October 2025.

The parties are conducting systematic work to expand economic cooperation. In particular, during the 4th meeting of the Joint Strategic Planning Group held on January 21, 2026, progress was noted in implementing the Action Plan of the 8th meeting of the Joint Economic Commission (JEC). The key role of the JEC as an effective mechanism for developing practical trade and economic cooperation between Uzbekistan and Türkiye was emphasized.

For Uzbekistan, cooperation with Türkiye is valuable in that Turkish businesses bring not only capital but also managerial expertise, technologies, and production culture. For Türkiye, the Uzbek market is attractive as a dynamically developing economy with a population exceeding 38 million and growing domestic demand. In this sense, interaction increasingly takes on the character of mutual complementarity.

One of the notable trends of 2025 was the development of transport connectivity between the two countries, primarily in the aviation sector. The number of weekly flights reached 97, with routes expanding to 8 destinations. The broadening of geography and frequency of direct flights between Tashkent, Samarkand, Namangan, Andijan, Ankara, Istanbul, and Izmir promotes growth in business mobility, tourist flows, and humanitarian contacts. The launch of new routes by both national and private carriers became an important practical step toward further rapprochement.

The increase in flight numbers offers not only passenger convenience but also broader economic effects. It facilitates contacts between entrepreneurs, simplifies participation in exhibitions and negotiations, and makes accompanying joint projects more accessible. Prospectively, this also creates prerequisites for developing air cargo transportation, which could further strengthen trade and economic ties.

Energy cooperation also demonstrates positive dynamics. Turkish companies are actively participating in modernizing Uzbekistan's energy infrastructure, including projects for developing renewable energy sources.

Particular emphasis must be placed on the special role of cultural and humanitarian interaction in developing bilateral relations. Common historical, cultural, and linguistic roots create a favorable foundation for expanding cooperation in education, science, culture, and tourism. Branches of leading Turkish universities operate in Uzbekistan, joint educational programs are implemented, and student and faculty exchanges take place.

Tourist exchange between the two countries shows sustained growth. By the end of 2025, Türkiye entered the top five countries by number of tourists visiting Uzbekistan. In turn, Türkiye remains one of the most popular tourist destinations for Uzbek citizens. Development of tourism ties contributes to strengthening intercultural dialogue and people-to-people diplomacy.

These figures reflect not only the attractiveness of the Turkish tourism market but also the general expansion of population mobility. In the long term, it is precisely cultural and humanitarian ties that form the solid social foundation of bilateral partnership.

Analysis of 2025 dynamics allows identification of several directions that could become key to further deepening Uzbek-Turkish partnership:

First, development of industrial cooperation. The existing network of joint enterprises could become the basis for more complex projects oriented not only toward the domestic market but also toward exports to third countries. Such an approach corresponds to the strategic objectives of both economies.

Second, transport, logistics, and infrastructure. Expansion of air connectivity is an important step, but the potential for cooperation in this sphere is significantly broader and includes development of multimodal transportation, warehousing infrastructure, and digital trade solutions.

Third, services and human capital. Türkiye possesses considerable expertise in tourism, medicine, construction, and education. For Uzbekistan, interaction in these areas opens opportunities not only for adopting experience but also for jointly entering regional markets.

Uzbek-Turkish relations are developing on a positive and constructive basis, confirming the maturity and stability of bilateral interaction. The parties demonstrate readiness for dialogue, pragmatism, and a commitment to considering mutual interests. The growing number of joint enterprises, expanding transport links, increasing tourist flows, and stable political dialogue form a solid foundation for further development of cooperation.

Alisher Kadirov,

Head of Department of the Institute of Strategic and Regional Studies under the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan

Since 2017, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s administration has pursued a sweeping reform agenda, liberalizing the economy while strengthening social welfare. These reforms are enshrined in new policies and the 2023 Constitution, which explicitly defines Uzbekistan as a “social state” responsible for ensuring employment and reducing poverty. The government’s national strategy (“Uzbekistan–2030”) even set a target of halving poverty by 2026. In short, Uzbekistan’s policy framework has shifted toward the combined goals of economic growth and inclusive social protection.

By 2023 the new National Agency for Social Protection (NASP) and community “Inson” service centres were delivering aid to roughly 2.3 million needy families – about a four-fold increase from 2017. Pensions and basic benefits were also raised: for instance, pension and disability payments in real terms are now about 1.5 times higher than before the reforms.

Community service is delivered through Inson centers, one-stop offices in each locality that help citizens apply for benefits and services. These “Inson” centres provide personal assistance with applications and information, reflecting a shift to integrated, client-oriented support. Relatedly, a new registry of persons requiring care has been established (by 2023 it contained ~17,800 profiles) to manage support for the disabled and elderly; each case is reviewed quarterly so that aid can be adjusted as needed. Together, these digital tools and organizational changes – one-stop “Inson” centers, a unified registry, targeted lists and case management – represent a modern social protection architecture far beyond Uzbekistan’s previous fragmented system.

International partners have closely supported and evaluated these reforms. The World Bank has played a leading role: it delivered roughly $2.1 billion through policy-based loans (2018–2021) to finance structural reforms in jobs, governance and social policy. In mid-2024 the Bank approved an additional $100 million “INSON” project to improve social care for vulnerable groups. This project will establish more than 50 community-based social service centres and expand services to some 50,000 people (including older persons, disabled, and children).

Within the framework of the “From Poverty to Prosperity” program, launched on 1 November 2024, families receive support across seven key dimensions:

• Ensuring stable employment and achieving higher income levels;
• Access to education and vocational training;
• Access to guaranteed state healthcare services;
• Access to social services;
• Improvement of housing conditions;
• Development of mahalla (community) infrastructure by the state;
• Direct engagement and dialogue with public sector representatives.

More than 600,000 families have gained access to 1.3 million social services aimed at employment and income growth. Members of these families have also benefited from over 2.2 million guaranteed healthcare services, directly contributing to their sustainable participation in the labor market.

Expanding Social Care Provision

For individuals requiring continuous care, a new model of service provision through private providers has been introduced. These services include household assistance, home- and field-based care, medical and social rehabilitation, and personal assistant support. Currently, 13,800 individuals — representing 76% of all those in need of care — receive such services from the private sector.

According to the Presidential Decree of the Republic of Uzbekistan, by 2030 the number of recipients of social services is expected to reach at least 3 million citizens annually, while the share of services provided by the non-state sector will rise to 30%. This approach fully aligns with the principles of the social and solidarity economy.

The programs implemented by the National Agency for Social Protection are characterized as accessible, effective, and oriented toward sustainable economic development.

1. Accessibility

As part of the “From Poverty to Prosperity” program, a National Registry of Poor Families has been established. The identification of households and decisions regarding their inclusion are made directly at the community (mahalla) level. As of today, 667,000 families, comprising approximately 2.8 million individuals, have been registered. This provides a comprehensive understanding of their living conditions and the opportunities for poverty reduction.

2. Effectiveness

In the first nine months of the current year, the average per capita income among registered families has nearly doubled, rising from 174,000 soums (~USD 14) to 338,000 soums (~USD 27) per month. Furthermore, 73,000 families that previously had no income now earn official wages. During the same period, 150,000 families have successfully escaped poverty, with 105,000 (70%) doing so primarily due to increased formal employment income.

3. Sustainability

To ensure targeted support, families are categorized into three groups:

• Red – households with persons with disabilities requiring care, as well as families without a breadwinner or headed by a single parent;
• Yellow – families with employable members but lacking stable income and professional skills;
• Green – families that have exited poverty but remain at risk of falling back.

This classification enables the application of differentiated measures: “red” families receive priority care and social support; “yellow” families are targeted with employment and training programs; and “green” families benefit from measures aimed at preventing a return to poverty.

Within this framework, the development of a “care economy” has emerged as a key priority. The Agency has introduced daycare services for children with disabilities and the “Step into an Active Life” program for older persons. These initiatives enable family members to participate in the labor market, thereby activating previously unpaid caregivers.

Investing in Human Capital

Particular attention is given to children from low-income families. The state subsidizes up to 90% of the costs associated with their education and development. In 2025, 125,000 children from poor households gained preferential access to preschools, demonstrating how social protection systems can make an indirect yet significant contribution to poverty reduction.

In conclusion, the programs implemented by the National Agency for Social Protection go far beyond material support. They create enabling conditions for income generation, employment, and human capital development, thereby contributing directly to the sustainable economic growth of the country.

Olima Almatova Qorabekovna, a resident of “Ezgulik” makhalla, Buka district, Tashkent region, who received support from the Agency, said:

“My spouse worked at the mining combine for forty years, but after he became ill, he could no longer continue. For his sake, I took on whatever jobs people offered me. When the doctors suggested placing stents in his heart arteries, I refused, saying: ‘Whatever help you can give, give it to my family. I’ve lived my life, I am already sixty-seven. I’ve seen so much — whatever comes, I will accept it. I don’t need stents. I only ask that you give a little help to my family.’

When support arrived under the President’s decision, I cannot express how happy I was. I said: ‘Oh God, there really is someone who came to open my door.’ They came and extended a helping hand. We planted cucumbers and tomatoes, and soon money began to come in. We have already earned income three times. So much support has reached us, and we are deeply grateful to our President. Feeding even one family is difficult, yet he is taking care of millions. For those who are struggling and in need, such help gives strength, brings joy, and inspires them to move forward. One can hardly imagine just how powerful that is.”

In conclusion, the programs implemented by the National Agency for Social Protection go far beyond material support. They create enabling conditions for income generation, employment, and human capital development, thereby contributing directly to the sustainable economic growth of the country.

Just a few years ago, the concept of the “smart city” was largely seen as a futuristic idea associated with digital control panels, autonomous transport, widespread sensor networks, and automated urban services.

Today, the smart city has become a practical tool for addressing modern urban challenges. This trend can be seen across countries facing rapid population growth, increasing migration to major metropolitan areas, overstretched infrastructure, and mounting climate risks.

In this context, smart technologies are no longer viewed as an end in themselves. Instead, they are increasingly used to improve the resilience and efficiency of key urban systems, including transport, energy, public utilities, waste management, and environmental monitoring. This allows cities to adapt more effectively to emerging challenges, reduce pressure on infrastructure, and improve the overall quality of urban life.

At the same time, smart city development is gaining strategic economic importance by creating long-term drivers of growth. Such projects attract substantial investment by combining digital infrastructure, innovative services, and principles of sustainable development.

The growth of smart urban areas also contributes to job creation in high-tech sectors ranging from IT and telecommunications to engineering and urban data analytics. In parallel, the modernization of urban infrastructure improves resource management and raises overall living standards.

Against this backdrop, the approaches taken by Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan deserve particular attention. Rather than simply following a global trend, both countries are developing their own models of smart urbanization — ones in which technology serves people and supports the creation of more comfortable, sustainable, and future-oriented cities.

In this regard, Uzbekistan offers a particularly notable example, as urbanization is becoming an increasingly pressing issue amid steady demographic growth. The country’s population is growing by approximately 1.8–2% annually, placing additional pressure on transport systems, housing, infrastructure, and social services.

Under these conditions, the government is focusing not on limited modernization of the existing urban environment, but on the creation of new growth centers. The Smart City concept adopted in 2019, followed by the Digital Uzbekistan – 2030 strategy, established the institutional foundation for the large-scale digital transformation of urban infrastructure and public services.

One of the most visible outcomes of this strategy is the New Tashkent project, whose significance extends far beyond that of a traditional urban development initiative.

In essence, the project aims to create a new economic, administrative, and investment hub capable of easing pressure on the existing capital while introducing a fundamentally new model of urban organization based on smart city principles and sustainable development.

In this case, the concept of the “15-minute city,” green infrastructure, digital governance, public transport prioritization, and energy efficiency are not treated as separate elements, but as components of a broader strategy aimed at expanding economic space and improving the quality of the urban environment.

Against this backdrop, New Tashkent illustrates how urbanization can serve not only as a response to infrastructure pressures, but also as a tool for creating new centers of economic growth capable of redistributing business activity and shaping the long-term development of the urban agglomeration.

This is also why the project has a distinctly international dimension. Its implementation involves Singapore’s Meinhardt Group, the UK-based Foster + Partners and Cross Works, the Dutch firm OMA, Japan’s Sojitz Corporation, South Korea’s Incheon International Airport Corporation, and other international partners. This reflects Uzbekistan’s efforts to integrate global expertise into its national development model.

Azerbaijan, in turn, has chosen a different approach to the development of smart urban spaces. Rather than building entirely new cities from scratch, the focus has been placed on the restoration and comprehensive modernization of recently reintegrated territories alongside the introduction of modern urban planning solutions and Smart City technologies.

This approach goes beyond the physical reconstruction of infrastructure and involves rethinking urban development through digital technologies, sustainable planning, and green standards.

Following the reintegration of Karabakh and Eastern Zangezur, Azerbaijan faced not only the challenge of rebuilding damaged territories, but also the task of their socio-economic reintegration into the country’s broader development framework. In this context, the concepts of Smart City and Smart Village have gained particular strategic importance, serving as the foundation for a new model of territorial planning and governance.

Within this model, technology is no longer viewed solely as a modernization tool, but as an instrument for comprehensive territorial development. It supports the rapid restoration of basic services, creates conditions for the return of displaced populations, stimulates economic activity, and enables more effective management of spatial development.

One of the clearest examples is Aghali — Azerbaijan’s first “smart village.” The project demonstrates how digital infrastructure, renewable energy, smart agriculture, and modern public services can become part of a new model of post-conflict reconstruction.

The village covers around 119 hectares and includes more than 200 modern eco-friendly homes equipped with smart systems, as well as social and public infrastructure facilities, including a school, kindergarten, medical center, ASAN xidmət and DOST service centers, small business facilities, and administrative buildings.

A similar development model can also be seen in Fizuli, Aghdam, Shusha, Khojaly, and several other settlements, where new infrastructure systems are being developed based on environmental sustainability, transport accessibility, and digital management of urban and rural services.

Like Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan also relies heavily on international cooperation as a key driver of modernization. Huawei is involved in implementing digital solutions, the World Bank provides analytical and advisory support, while Japan is expanding cooperation in smart infrastructure and green energy, contributing to the adoption of advanced technological practices.

Uzbekistan is building a new urban environment from the ground up, while Azerbaijan is developing its model against the backdrop of a complex historical and territorial transformation. At first glance, these are very different starting points. Yet this is precisely what makes the similarities in their approaches particularly notable. In both cases, digital infrastructure is not treated as an additional layer built onto the city, but as a core element shaping its future development from the outset.

At the same time, neither country is pursuing a model based on copying existing examples. The experiences of Singapore, Dubai, and Qatar are being studied, but not replicated. Instead, both states are developing their own models tailored to local demographic, geographic, historical, and social realities. This reflects not a limitation of choice, but the maturity of their strategic approach.

Against the backdrop of accelerating urbanization across Central Asia and the South Caucasus, the experiences of Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan are increasingly emerging as a kind of laboratory for new development models. While their strategies differ in tools and priorities, both are driven by the same objective: building a new generation of cities that combine technology, sustainability, adaptability, and a people-centered approach.

Abbosbek Mashrapov

Senior Research Fellow, International Institute for Central Asia

The 21st century is increasingly being referred to as the era of cities. Today, urbanization extends far beyond the domestic policies of states. The quality of the urban environment directly influences countries’ investment attractiveness, economic resilience, and ability to adapt to climate challenges. Cities are increasingly becoming platforms for international cooperation, technology exchange, and the promotion of new models of sustainable development. In this era, cities are turning into a new diplomacy, a new economy, and a new form of global influence.

It is under these conditions that the 13th Session of the World Urban Forum is taking place in Baku under the theme “Housing for All: Safe and Resilient Cities and Communities.” This representative summit is dedicated to finding solutions to the global housing crisis, which today affects nearly 3 billion people.

It is symbolic that the global discussion on the future of cities is being held in one of the most dynamically transforming cities of Eurasia. Hosting the forum in Azerbaijan reflects the growing importance of the Caspian–Central Asian region as a new center of infrastructural, logistical, and urban development.

Over recent years, this vast region has gradually transformed not only into a major transport hub connecting East and West, but also into a space of large-scale urban transformation.

Baku itself has in recent years become a notable example of modernization in urban infrastructure, transportation systems, and public spaces. Additional significance is attached to Azerbaijan’s policy of restoring and modernizing liberated territories, where particular attention is paid to the concepts of “smart” and “green” cities.

Most cities and countries across Eurasia are changing rapidly. Central Asia is experiencing one of the most significant spatial transformations of recent decades. Population growth, the expansion of urban agglomerations, and increasing pressure on infrastructure require fundamentally new approaches to urban development.

All these processes are unfolding amid intensifying climate challenges. The consequences of the Aral Sea desiccation, water scarcity, and rising temperatures make urban resilience not only an environmental issue, but also a matter of the region’s long-term security.

According to the International Energy Agency, modern buildings consume around 30% of global energy and account for approximately 26% of global emissions. As a result, by the middle of the century more than 1.6 billion urban residents may face water shortages and climate-related risks. Close international cooperation in the sphere of sustainable urban development is becoming an inevitable paradigm.

It is therefore no coincidence that the urban agenda plays a prominent role in Uzbekistan’s development. In recent years, the development of urban environments, infrastructure, and housing construction has become one of the key priorities of the New Uzbekistan strategy. In the country, the construction process is viewed as the foundation for long-term economic growth, sustainability, and quality of life.

The participation of the President of Uzbekistan in the World Urban Forum reflects the country’s aspiration to integrate more actively into global urban policy. Of particular importance is the republic’s participation in the international exhibition Urban Expo, where the “New Tashkent” project, the “Yangi O‘zbekiston” residential complexes, and large-scale reforms in urban planning and housing policy are being presented.

Urbanization has become one of the key pillars of the New Uzbekistan strategy. According to forecasts, the country’s population may increase from 38 million to 50 million people over the next 15 years. Under these conditions, the development of cities, housing, and infrastructure becomes a matter of the state’s strategic future.

In recent years, Uzbekistan has been implementing the largest infrastructure and housing modernization program in the region. According to the Address of the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev to the Oliy Majlis and the people of Uzbekistan, over the past nine years the country has constructed 210 million square meters of residential and non-residential facilities. In 2025 alone, multi-apartment residential buildings with a total area of 8.1 million square meters were commissioned, amounting to approximately 135,000 apartments.

Particular attention is being paid to the development of regions and small cities. Uzbekistan is pursuing a more balanced model of urbanization that предусматривает the development not only of the capital, but also of regional centers. An important element of the new urban policy is the environmental agenda. The country is introducing principles of “green” construction, expanding urban greening initiatives, and implementing the nationwide “Clean Air” project aimed at improving air quality.

The main symbol of the new era of urbanization is becoming the “New Tashkent” project — a modern next-generation megapolis with sustainable infrastructure, green areas, digital services, and a modern transport system. At the first stage, the project envisions infrastructure for 600,000 residents, while after full completion the population of New Tashkent may reach 2 million people.

“New Tashkent” demonstrates the country’s development priorities and redefines the very philosophy of the urban environment in Central Asia. The reforms initiated by the Leader of Uzbekistan have already transformed the country’s cities into a factor enhancing the nation’s international competitiveness.

At the forum, the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev presented his own comprehensive vision of what the cities of the future should become under conditions of rapid urbanization, climate challenges, and technological change. Traditionally, the Head of State addressed not only the national agenda, but also pressing issues concerning the global future of the modern urban environment.

One of the key initiatives is the idea of “balanced urbanization,” which implies the harmonious development not only of megacities, but also of small and medium-sized cities. At a time when the world’s largest cities are facing infrastructure overload, housing shortages, and deteriorating environmental conditions, this approach is becoming increasingly relevant.

In essence, this concerns the formation of a fairer and more sustainable model of urban development, where opportunities for comfortable living are created not only in capitals, but also in the regions.

Special attention has also been paid to the digital transformation of the urban environment. In particular, the initiative to establish a network of “smart and safe cities” for the exchange of technologies, advanced solutions, and experience in the fields of artificial intelligence, digital governance, and urban security appears highly relevant.

Against the backdrop of rapid technological advancement, such an initiative appears especially timely and reflects the country’s aspiration to participate more actively in shaping the new global technological agenda.

A separate topic of discussion was the climate resilience of cities. In the context of the intensifying climate crisis, there is a growing demand for promoting the principles of “green” urbanization and expanding environmental standards.

All these proposals are particularly relevant for Central Asia, where issues of water, ecology, and urban sustainability are already becoming matters of the region’s long-term security.

Importantly, today Uzbekistan is not limiting itself merely to discussing global challenges, but is striving to offer its own solutions. The large-scale reforms being implemented in the country, the construction of “New Tashkent,” and the promotion of modern approaches to urban development are gradually shaping a new image of Uzbekistan — a state ready not only to adapt to global changes, but also to participate in shaping the cities of the future.

This is precisely why it is becoming increasingly evident that, in the future, Uzbekistan is ready to become one of the international platforms for seeking constructive solutions on issues of global urbanization, sustainable development, and the formation of a new urban architecture for the 21st century.

In conclusion, it should be noted that the modern world is increasingly entering an era of global competition among cities, infrastructures, and quality of life. It is cities that in the coming decades will determine economic resilience, investment attractiveness, and the technological level of states. Against this backdrop, Central Asia is gradually turning into one of the new spaces of large-scale urban transformation in Eurasia.

By implementing the strategy of New Uzbekistan, our country is already shaping its own model of a modern, sustainable, and people-oriented city of the future. Large-scale reforms, infrastructure development, the promotion of the “green” agenda, and the “New Tashkent” project demonstrate the aspiration not only to adapt to global changes, but also to become one of the centers shaping the new urban architecture of the region.

Author: Guli Nizamova, Leading Research Fellow at the Center for Foreign Policy Studies and International Initiatives

The Business Activity Index (BAI), estimated by the Center for Economic Research and Reforms, reached 1124 points in February 2026, increasing by 12.4% compared with the previous month (and by 24.2% compared with the same period last year, Chart No.1).

In February of the current year, the following changes were observed across the BAI components:

• the component reflecting the number of transactions on business entities’ bank accounts increased by 22%;
• the intensity of raw material purchases on the commodity exchange rose by 10.6%;
• the component reflecting active business entities increased by 0.9%;
• the trademark component grew by 9.4%.

In February 2026, the BAI also increased in 13 regions compared with the previous month (Chart No.2).

In particular, notable growth was observed in Andijan region (44.8%), Syrdarya region (41.7%), Tashkent region (33.3%), and Kashkadarya region (28.2%).

At the same time, in the Republic of Karakalpakstan the indicator slightly declined by 0.5%, remaining at a moderate level.

Banking operations

During the reporting period, the number of interbank payment transactions reached 6,760.3 thousand, increasing by 1,220.5 thousand transactions (22%) compared with January 2026.

An increase in interbank payment operations was recorded in 12 regions. In particular, a significant rise in banking operations between legal entities compared with the previous month was observed in Tashkent city (24.1%), Surkhandarya region (23.3%), Samarkand region (21.4%), and Navoi region (17.7%).

At the same time, this indicator declined in Syrdarya region (8.1%) and the Republic of Karakalpakstan (1.6%).

Exchange component

In February of the current year, the exchange component of the BAI reached 1.1058 points, increasing by 10.6% compared with the previous month.

This reflected a 36.2% increase in the number of transactions concluded, while the average volume of goods purchased per transaction declined by 15.1%.

The total turnover of goods traded on the UzEx amounted to 6,296 billion soums in February 2026, which is 6.5% higher than in the previous month.

Component of active business entities

During the reporting period, this component amounted to 1.0088 points, increasing by 0.9% compared with the previous month.

At the same time, the total number of operating business entities increased by 4,079 units, reaching 508.5 thousand.

The number of large enterprises increased by 51 units, reaching 4,161.
The number of small enterprises rose by 3.9 thousand, reaching 415.1 thousand.
The number of farms increased by 36, reaching 89.2 thousand.

Trademark component

In February 2026, the trademark component reached 1.0641 points, increasing by 9.4% compared with the previous month.

During this period, 430 trademarks and product names were registered by legal entities.

Islombek Saparmatov, CERR

The most important sign of civil society is manifested in the fact that citizens exercise complete control over the activities of state structures. According to article 36 of the new version of the Constitution of Uzbekistan, our citizens have the right to participate directly and through their representatives in the management of the affairs of society and the state. Such participation is carried out through self-government, referendums and the democratic formation of state bodies, as well as public control over the activities of state bodies. The procedure for exercising public control over the activities of state bodies is established by law.

In order to organize and regulate relations in the field of public control over the activities of state bodies and institutions, the law “On Public Control” was adopted on April 12, 2018. According to this law, public control is carried out in such forms as appeals and requests to state bodies, public discussions, public hearings, public monitoring, and the study is carried out by citizens' self-government bodies in such forms as hearing reports and information from officials of state bodies.

Consistent work is underway in our country to implement public control and improve the regulatory framework governing this area. By presidential decree dated May 4, 2018, the badge "For contribution to the development of civil society" was established; the decree of the President of Uzbekistan dated July 4, 2018 "On measures to organize the activities of public councils under state bodies" was of great importance for accelerating work in this area. This resolution establishes the procedure for organizing the main tasks, functions, powers and activities of the public council under state bodies, which basically provides that the public council is created by the decision of the head of the state body, carries out its work on a voluntary basis and it is assumed that it will conduct its work on a public basis, as well as be considered as a permanent advisory body whose decisions will be advisory in nature.

As Shavkat Mirziyoyev noted, “There is no more effective tool for achieving the supremacy of the Constitution and the law than public control.” Public control is an important institution of democracy and people's power; it serves to ensure the protection of the rights and legitimate interests of citizens by monitoring the activities of state bodies.

In recent years, special attention has been paid in our republic to ensuring the participation of citizens in the management of society and public affairs, the creation of effective mechanisms for public control over the activities of the executive branch, and further strengthening the functions of public control. In particular, at the initiative of the President of Uzbekistan, a public chamber was established in 2020 in order to further strengthen public control and establish close cooperation between the state and society. It was noted that the public chamber should regularly study the opinion of the population, set specific tasks for government agencies to find solutions. The importance of implementing such influential forms of control as "public hearings", "public monitoring", "public expertise", and "public initiative" was demonstrated.

According to the decree of the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan "On measures to expand financing of projects formed on the basis of public opinion", adopted on October 25, 2022, an additional 335 billion soums were allocated for the implementation of 364 projects, each of which received more than 2 thousand votes in July-September 2022.

In recent years of modern development in our republic, the system of public administration has been improved, effective mechanisms of dialogue with the people have been introduced, and the effectiveness of the role and activities of the Mahalla Institute in the management of society has increased. Virtual and public reception rooms of the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan were created in order to ensure human interests, knowledge and solution of problems and needs of people. These structures have become a mechanism for in-depth analysis of problems on the ground and a criterion for increasing the responsibility of state bodies and officials to society and evaluating their activities.

To date, such systems as "online reception" and "virtual visit" have been introduced, allowing for quick and economical identification of problems on the ground in order to optimize their expenses related to the maintenance of the public administration apparatus, eliminate corruption factors and establish effective public control over budget spending.

As an example, it is worth mentioning that in recent years a new system of dialogue with the people has been created – the activities of the presidential virtual and people's reception rooms. Of the 9,465,000 applications received by the virtual reception of the President, about 9,379,000 have been considered, the rest are also being resolved in accordance with the procedure established by law. The results of the public discussion can also be found on the "portal for discussions of draft regulatory legal acts" (regulation.gov.uz), which is clearly seen in the example. To date, 25384 draft regulatory legal acts have been posted on this portal for public discussion, of which 25183 have already been completed.

In recent years, the study of public opinion has become publicly available. The Open Budget portal was launched to exercise public control over targeted budget expenditures. Citizens can send messages about violations of budget legislation through the Portal, suggestions for improving the budget process, while receiving information such as the state budget, budget execution through this portal. In particular, an initiative budget has been launched through the Open Budget information portal, which is held 2 times a year. Thanks to this portal, citizens are focused on solving problems through joint voting. In the first season (February) 2024, 35,575 initiatives were supported, for which 3,390.5 billion soums were allocated.

Establishing the accountability of public authorities to parliament and local councils, as well as the introduction of the Electronic Government system, led to a further strengthening of public control. As a result, today in our country there is a single interactive portal of public services (my.gov.uz), an open data portal (data.egov.uz), a portal for discussing draft regulatory documents (regulation.gov.uz), and a complex of information systems “License" (license.gov.uz), information system for automating the activities of Single Window centers (birdarcha.uz).

Since 2023, in order to improve the system for identifying and solving social problems among the population in our republic, the practice of monthly hearing information from the heads of relevant government bodies and organizations in the mahalla council has been established, and new forms of public control have been introduced - “mahalla control” groups and “survey” institutions mahalla chairmen." Also, on behalf of the President, the “digital mahalla” system and the “people’s control” platform were improved.

The “My Opinion” web portal, which is under the jurisdiction of the Public Chamber, was created in order to expand the opportunities of citizens in our country to participate in the management of the affairs of society and the state, to ensure the openness of the activities of representative bodies of state power, to ensure the viability and effectiveness of the public administration system. Through this portal, a citizen can send proposals on legislation on important issues of state and public importance in the form of an electronic collective appeal. The My Opinion web portal, which is under the jurisdiction of the Public Chamber, was created in order to expand the opportunities of citizens in our country to participate in the management of the affairs of society and the state, to ensure the openness of the activities of representative bodies of state power, to ensure the viability and effectiveness of the public administration system. Through this portal, a citizen can send proposals on legislation on important issues of state and public importance in the form of an electronic collective appeal "Meningfikrim.uz "(My opinion). To date, more than 6670 collective appeals and about 30,000 comments have been received through the portal.

In recent years, political parties, which are considered to be one of the main actors of civil society in our country, have been given not only ample opportunities for free participation in elections, but also control over the executive branch. Political parties also have the right to exercise public control based on the interests of the public and their electorate. During election processes, local observers at polling stations consist of representatives of political parties and citizens' self-government bodies.

The role of the media in developing openness and transparency in our society, establishing public control over the activities of government bodies and their officials, studying and resolving legal appeals from citizens is also incomparable. In particular, the number of media registered in 2016–2023 increased by 41%, that is, in 2016 their number was 1614, and by 2023 it reached 2140. The number of mobile Internet users also exceeded 33 million.

As can be seen from the above, the main purpose of public control is to ensure respect for the rights, freedoms and legitimate interests of citizens, to ensure legality in the activities of state bodies and officials, and to protect the interests of society.

The Uzbekistan 2030 strategy, developed based on the results of public discussions in order to create a fair and modern state serving the people, identified such priority tasks as: creating the necessary conditions for public participation in the activities of local councils, broad involvement of civil society institutions and the gradual digitalization of their activities, establishing the practice of assessing the activities of heads of state bodies and their deputies based on public opinion, and intensified continuation of work to form an unparalleled attitude towards corruption in society.

As a result of public control, the activities of state bodies in the country are objectively studied, their shortcomings are identified, various violations of legislation are prevented, public participation in the implementation of laws and their preparation is ensured, broader conditions are created for the prompt solution of various problems in society and the will of the population, and special attention should be paid to the fact that public control implies not only control over the quality of the work performed, but also the use of opportunities, as well as participation in their development.

In conclusion, I would like to note that in our republic, constitutional status has been given a state public control. In the new Uzbekistan, the participation of citizens in the management of the affairs of society and the state, including the development and improvement of public control over the activities of state bodies, provides ample opportunities for the full-fledged formation and strengthening of civil society in our country.  If the public control in the country is strong, the state is more humane, free and fair.

N.S.Rasulova, candidate of historical sciences Associate professor of the University  of Public safety of the Republic of Uzbekistan

You can read more details in the file below!

The exhibition will bring together more than 100 companies and brands from 12 countries.

The specialised international exhibition of the beauty, cosmetology, and perfumery-cosmetics industry – Beauty Uzbekistan 2026 – will take place from April 28 to April 30 at the CAEx Uzbekistan exhibition complex in Tashkent.

Beauty Uzbekistan is a professional B2B exhibition that brings together manufacturers and distributors of cosmetic products, aesthetic medicine specialists, retail representatives, salon business owners, and professionals in the personal care sector. The exhibition provides direct access to leading global brands, innovative products, and cutting-edge technologies, while offering valuable opportunities to establish business connections, and gain early insight into key trends in the beauty industry.

The exhibition will feature more than 100 companies and brands from 12 countries: Azerbaijan, China, Georgia, Italy, Kyrgyzstan, Republic of Korea, Poland, Russia, Sweden, Spain, UAE, and Uzbekistan. National pavilions from the Republic of Korea and Poland will showcase advanced beauty industry solutions and the export potential of these countries.

According to the organizers, the main sections of the exhibition are:

- Beauty Uzbekistan – covering the full spectrum of the perfumery and cosmetics industry, including makeup and skincare cosmetics, fragrances, personal care products, and hair industry products.

- Beauty Derma Central Asia – a dedicated segment focused on aesthetic medicine, device-based cosmetology, and anti-ageing solutions. This section of the exhibition will present advanced technologies for clinics and industry professionals, including injectable treatments, as well as next-generation laser and energy-based technologies.

Traditionally, the exhibition will feature a comprehensive business programme, including specialised seminars, expert-led sessions, and professional discussions.

Dedicated programme segments will address key developments in aesthetic medicine, balneology, and SPA industry, including scientific approaches in aesthetic medicine (CYTOLIFE / MedTenderGroup, Russia), as well as advanced solutions in balneological equipment and hydrotherapy technologies (Physiotechnika, Russia).

A specialised session on fragrance solutions presented by the Swiss Company LUZI may be of particular interest to industry professional and household chemical manufacturers.

Beauty Uzbekistan 2026 is more than just an exhibition — it is a dynamic professional platform where business, medicine, technology, and the latest beauty trends converge. 

The event is organised by Iteca Exhibitions, an international exhibition company, in partnership with ICA Eurasia Group, informed that one can register to visit the exhibition on the website: www.beautypro.uz.

IA “Dunyo”

Dear compatriots!

Sincerely, from the bottom of my heart, I congratulate you, all our people on the holiday of Kurban Hayit, which has come in our country, which is being transformed and illuminated with the light of peace, kindness and harmony every day.

In these blessed moments we all deeply feel the spirit and joy of the great holiday and give immense gratitude to the Almighty for the fact that we meet such bright days together with our people.

Today, Kurban Hayit, firmly established in people's lives as a symbol of mercy, generosity and humanism, is gaining more and more significance, consonant with the content of large-scale reforms in the New Uzbekistan, in which respect for human honor and dignity comes to the fore in all spheres.

It should be especially noted that our sacred religion and this bright holiday, which embodies its humanistic essence, serves as a source of strength and inspiration for us in all good deeds aimed at strengthening the atmosphere of peace and tranquility, friendship and cohesion in mahallas and families, caring for the older generation, youth and women, low-income families, and making sure that no one is left behind.

Dear friends!

In these bright days, when our hearts are filled with joy, we talk about the great work carried out in recent years to revive the original spiritual values, to improve the sacred places, to create favorable conditions for the Muslims of the country to freely perform religious rites, including hajj and umrah.

In a short period of time, international scientific centers of Imam Bukhari, Imam Termezi and Imam Maturidi have been organized. The memorial complexes of Abu Iso Termezi, Abu Muin Nasafi, Sulton Uwais Karani and Suzuk Ota have been radically transformed. Work on the construction and equipping of the Imam Bukhari memorial complex and the Centre for Islamic Civilization is continuing apace. Majestic mosques are being built in many towns and villages.

Over the past seven years, more than 60 thousand Muslims of the country have made the Hajj. These days 15 thousand more of our compatriots are making pilgrimage to two sacred cities - Mecca and Medina, having realized their most cherished dream.

In such blessed moments, when good thoughts come true, we wish them with all our heart to fully perform the rites of Hajj and safely return to their homeland.

On the eve of the celebration of Hayyit, during our telephone conversation with the Chairman of the Muslims' Board, the Honorable Mufti Sheikh Nuriddin Kholiknazar, who is staying in the holy Mecca, he emphasized the created conditions necessary for our compatriots to perform the rites of Hajj. We hope that, having returned home, our pilgrims will become an example in further strengthening the atmosphere of kindness and mutual assistance in the society, in the struggle of enlightenment against ignorance, strengthening the education of youth and establishing harmony in families.

Dear compatriots!

Today we sincerely congratulate our compatriots abroad on this holiday, wish them health, happiness and success.

We convey warm congratulations to believing Muslims in the states of near and far abroad and sincere wishes of peace and progress to their peoples and countries.

May the ongoing wars and conflicts in different regions cease! May peace reign on the Earth forever!

Dear friends!

Today, together with our multinational people, we are building a new Uzbekistan. The new Uzbekistan is a new life, a new development, a happy future.

If we unite more firmly and continue the initiated reforms with even greater determination, we will undoubtedly achieve this great goal.

We will surely raise our children to be a generation of true patriots, highly educated, possessing modern knowledge and professions.

I wish you happiness and success on this path.

May the Almighty protect our nation!

I once again congratulate you on the holy holiday of Kurban Hayit, wish you health, peace and prosperity to your families.



Shavkat Mirziyoyev,

President of the Republic of Uzbekistan

The crises observed today in the system of international relations once again testify to the growing need for mutual understanding, unity, and the achievement of common goals for the states of Central and South Asia. In this regard, dialogue platforms that contribute to strengthening mutual understanding and trust are of particular importance. In this context, the Termez Dialogue serves as a platform for developing interregional cooperation. Its first meeting took place on May 19, 2025, aimed at strengthening regional connectivity and elevating cooperation to a new level.

The growing demand for this platform was reflected in the organization of a separate session dedicated to the Termez Dialogue within the framework of the Doha Forum in December 2025. The discussions highlighted the importance of practical approaches to enhancing interregional cooperation.

The current meeting of the Termez Dialogue is aimed at defining a new stage in the development of the platform - the transition from conceptual discussions to defining priority areas and practical mechanisms for realizing the potential of interregional cooperation.  During the Termez Dialogue, special emphasis is expected to be placed on strengthening cultural ties.

This is relevant because interdependence must be understood more broadly than just trade, infrastructure, and transport corridors. It includes social, intellectual, and cultural ties that unite the communities of the region. Revisiting this history creates an important conceptual foundation for modern regional cooperation.

It is noteworthy that even in the past, Termez, a city located between the Greco-Bactrian, Kushan kingdoms, and other ancient states where Zoroastrianism, Buddhism, Christianity, and Islamic traditions emerged and developed as a center of intercultural and religious dialogue, flourished during the Timurid era and became a major center of trade, crafts, and science^[1]. Indeed, if we look at our history, the countries of Central Asia and the South Asian region have always developed harmoniously as a single space, closely cooperating in all spheres. The works of the great thinker Abu Rayhan Beruni “India,” Zahiriddin Muhammad Babur “Baburnama” and other historical sources are clear evidence of these close ties.

Furthermore, the following remarks by Muhammad Sobir Turkestani, Deputy Ambassador of Afghanistan to Uzbekistan, deserve attention: “Both Uzbekistan and Afghanistan are located on the land between two rivers, which was once called Mawarannahr.” There are many similarities in our cultures.  The cultural heritage of Alisher Navoi is the wealth of the peoples of Uzbekistan and Afghanistan. The remains of our ancestor Alisher Navoi are in the Herat region. All the minarets built in Herat during the reign of Sultan Husayn Bayqara stand as a single complex. Zahiriddin Muhammad Babur was buried in Kabul. In a complex called Babur's Garden. There are also large cultural museums in Afghanistan. Our antiquities are kept in our museums in Kabul, Herat, and Mazar-i-Sharif.”^[2] Of course, the main goal of our efforts today is not to develop these historical ties, but to restore them, and to further strengthen the bonds of friendship and brotherhood between our peoples.

To this end, in recent years, Uzbekistan has been increasingly developing ties with the countries of South Asia.

At the same time, special attention is paid to the development of cultural ties and people-to-people contacts, which contributes to strengthening economic ties and realizing untapped potential.

This approach is relevant given the ineffectiveness of using only military-political means to ensure security. For example, the failure to achieve positive results was once again confirmed by the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan in 2021, which was carried out with the help of weapons and military to establish peace and stability on Afghan soil. In this context, Uzbekistan's economic ties with Afghanistan today serve as one of the important factors in establishing peace in the country and restoring its economy.

According to estimates by the Statistics Agency of Uzbekistan, mutual trade turnover amounted to $653 million in 2021, $688.8 million in 2022, $784.1 million in 2023, and $999.9 million in January-November 2024^[3]. Over the past five years, trade turnover has increased 2.5 times, reaching $1.68 billion in 2025, while Uzbekistan's exports amounted to approximately $1.5 billion. The parties set a new medium-term goal to increase trade turnover to $5 billion. Therefore, today Uzbekistan is becoming one of the important investors in Afghanistan. Specifically, according to a $1 billion agreement signed between Uzbekistan and Afghanistan, Uzbekistan will participate in the development of the Tuti Maidan gas field in the Jauzjan and Faryab regions for 10 years.

The Termez International Trade Center, established in the Surkhandarya region, plays a very important role in implementing such trade and economic instruments. This shopping center is the first trade zone in Central Asia serving various entrepreneurs, especially Afghan entrepreneurs, who cooperate with Afghanistan. The shopping center features permanent exhibitions and fairs, an Uzbek-Afghan business school, a medical clinic for the treatment and provision of medical care to patients who are citizens of Afghanistan, a hotel, enterprises specializing in the production of precious metal jewelry, a multi-currency system, and other conditions that allow entrepreneurs to trade freely.

According to analytical data, 60% of Uzbekistan's total international transport passes through the transit routes of Central Asian countries and Afghanistan. Uzbekistan's access to seaports through Afghanistan is 2-3 times shorter than the access to the Black and Baltic Seas, and 5 times shorter than the route to the Pacific ports^[4]. According to economic analysts, the cost of delivering one container from Central Asia to South Asia through Afghanistan to seaports will decrease from $900 to $286. In addition, transportation time will be reduced from 35 days to 3-5 days. At the same time, export potential will also increase sharply. Improving transport and infrastructure communications and attracting international transit carriers to Central Asia is one of the most important tasks uniting the countries of the region. Its resolution is determined by the need to improve the socio-economic situation in the region.

In conclusion, interdependence is the most important task for the countries of Central and South Asia in terms of ensuring stability and sustainable development. In this sense, the Termez Dialogue, as a prestigious international forum, will be effective in further expanding ties between our regions, opening new horizons for cooperation, and moving confidently along the path of peace and development.

Furthermore, the Termez Dialogue, as a platform for strengthening interregional connectivity and restoring common historical, cultural, and civilizational ties, opens opportunities for the development of new international transport and logistics corridors through Afghanistan. In the current difficult conditions of growing mutual trust and conflict of interests, such a format of cooperation as the Termez Dialogue is of great importance.

Tashkent State University of Oriental Studies, Foreign policy and international economic relations Deputy Director of the Institute PhD., O. Abdurakhmonov

Eldor Aripov: "Termiz muloqoti Markaziy va Janubiy Osiyo o‘rtasidagi o‘zaro bog‘liqlikni mustahkamlashda muhim ahamiyatga ega". (21.05.2025), https://daryo.uz/2025/05/21/eldor-aripov-termiz-muloqoti-markaziy-va-janubiy-osiyo-ortasidagi-ozaro-bogliqlikni-mustahkamlashda-muhim-ahamiyatga-ega

Afg‘onistonda O‘zbekistonga aloqador madaniy boyliklar kam emas. (07.11.2023). https://xabar.uz/uz/madaniyat/afgonistonda-ozbekistonga-aloqador-madaniy-boyliklar-kam-emas

O‘zbekiston Respublikasi Tashqi savdo aylanmasi. 2024-yil yanvar-noyabr oylari uchun dastlabki ma’lumot // O‘zbekiston Respublikasi huzuridagi Statistika agentligi. – B.4.

Akmalov Sh. O‘zbekiston va Afg‘oniston: o‘tmishdan hozirgacha. Monografiya. – T.: “Zamon poligraf”, 2023. – B. 70.

1. Introduction

Central and South Asia form one of Eurasia’s most significant geographic junctions. Central Asia connects the continent’s east–west and north–south routes, while South Asia contains one of the world’s largest population bases and consumer markets. Taken together, the countries of the two subregions have a population of more than 2 billion people; however, their direct economic interaction remains below its potential level.

The scale of the potential market is confirmed by the figures: in 2024, the population of South Asia was approximately 1.68 billion people, while the region’s combined GDP was about US$4.5 trillion. At the same time, the economy of the five Central Asian countries in 2024 amounted to approximately US$489 billion. However, the level of interregional integration remains low: even within South Asia, intraregional trade is estimated at around 5% of total trade turnover, which is significantly lower than the ASEAN figure^[1][2][3].

This is evident in trade statistics: Central Asia’s main trade flows continue to be oriented toward Russia, China, the European Union, Türkiye, and the Middle East, while trade with South Asia occupies a comparatively limited niche.

The underused potential is explained not by a lack of demand, but by structural constraints. Between the two subregions, there are mountain barriers, complex cross-border routes, differing levels of integration into international supply chains, non-uniform customs and technical procedures, as well as the Afghanistan factor, which is simultaneously the shortest connecting link and the most sensitive element of the regional architecture. Therefore, the issue of connectivity has not only commercial but also strategic significance.

The restoration of economic ties between Central and South Asia should not be viewed as a romanticized return to historical routes. In modern conditions, it is a matter of competitiveness, supply-chain security, energy resilience, and diversification of foreign economic directions. For the countries of Central Asia, the southern route opens shorter access to the ports of the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean. For the countries of South Asia, it creates an opportunity to gain access to energy resources, food products, industrial goods, and new markets in Eurasia.

Uzbekistan occupies a special place in this logic. It is located in the central part of the region, borders all Central Asian states and Afghanistan, and therefore is capable of forming a link between the internal markets of Central Asia and the southern direction. At the same time, the role of a connector state means more than the transit of goods. It includes the coordination of infrastructure projects, the development of logistics services, the improvement of institutional quality, the creation of an analytical basis for decision-making, and the involvement of the private sector in interregional projects.

2. Historical and geographical preconditions for connectivity

The historical connection between Central and South Asia was formed long before the emergence of modern state borders. The cities of Transoxiana, Khorasan, Bactria, and northern India were part of a network of caravan routes and exchanges of artisanal goods, knowledge, religious traditions, and financial practices. Samarkand, Bukhara, Balkh, Merv, Kabul, Peshawar, and Lahore, in different periods, served as trade and cultural hubs linking the Eurasian space.

However, historical connectedness does not automatically translate into economic integration today. Modern supply chains depend on railways, highways, ports, energy networks, digital cargo-tracking systems, insurance, banking settlements, and predictable rules. Where even one of these elements is absent, transit becomes expensive, slow, and risky.

The geography of the region creates both incentives and constraints. On the one hand, the distance from Uzbekistan’s southern borders to northern Afghanistan is relatively short, and the route through Afghanistan is potentially the shortest overland path from Central Asia to Pakistan and onward to the ports of the Indian Ocean. On the other hand, mountain ranges, differences in railway gauge, the limited capacity of border infrastructure, security issues, and insufficient standardization of procedures increase the cost of projects.

Uzbekistan’s geographical role has not only qualitative but also measurable significance: the country is one of only two double-landlocked states in the world and, at the same time, the only state bordering all four other Central Asian countries as well as Afghanistan. In this context, the Mazar-i-Sharif–Kabul–Peshawar railway project, with a length of approximately 573 km, acquires systemic importance, since it could reduce the time and cost of transportation toward Pakistan’s ports by roughly 30%^[4].

Therefore, connectivity should be understood more broadly than the physical connection of two points on a map. In the modern economy, it includes four dimensions. The first is infrastructural: roads, railways, terminals, ports, and energy networks. The second is institutional: customs, tariffs, standards, sanitary and phytosanitary rules, permits, and transit guarantees. The third is commercial: demand, purchasing power, contracts, logistics companies, insurance, and banking channels. The fourth is social and humanitarian: education, labor skills, tourism, medical ties, and research cooperation.

This approach helps avoid oversimplification. Even the shortest road will not become a sustainable corridor unless it is supported by a reliable legal environment, competitive tariffs, financial guarantees, and coordination among states.

3. Current state of trade and economic cooperation

Trade and economic ties between Central and South Asia are developing, but their scale still does not correspond to the size of the markets. Trade between Central Asian countries and India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Afghanistan remains relatively modest compared with their trade with China, Russia, the European Union, Türkiye, and countries of the Middle East.

Central Asia supplies, or could potentially expand supplies to South Asia, in such areas as agricultural products, grain, fruit and vegetable products, textiles, fertilizers, energy goods, certain types of metals, and industrial raw materials. South Asia, primarily India and Pakistan, holds competitive positions in pharmaceuticals, medical goods, IT services, equipment, textile products, processed food products, and consumer goods.

In recent years, Uzbekistan has been strengthening the southern direction of its foreign economic policy. Trade ties with India and Pakistan are developing through pharmaceuticals, textiles, food products, services, logistics, and investment projects. Uzbekistan’s foreign trade in the southern direction is already growing, but it still occupies a limited place in the overall structure of foreign trade. The largest trade flows with South Asian countries are with Afghanistan and India. However, the very fact that certain bilateral flows are growing does not solve the main problem: interregional trade remains fragmented. In order to turn it into a sustainable market, it is necessary to reduce transaction costs, ensure the predictability of transit, make standards comparable, and develop business services.

The issue of trade data is especially important. Mutual trade is often assessed using different sources, while the statistics of exporting countries and importing countries may diverge. To develop effective policy, a regularly updated data panel is needed, broken down by corridors, types of cargo, border-crossing times, transportation costs, return loads, the number of permits, and the actual use of preferential regimes. Without such a database, regional initiatives risk remaining merely declaratory.

4. Transport and logistics infrastructure as the basis of connectivity

Transport infrastructure is the material foundation for the rapprochement of Central and South Asia. At the same time, it is more accurate to speak not of a single route, but of a portfolio of corridors. Relying on only one route increases the vulnerability of the entire system. A diversified network of routes through Afghanistan, Iran, the Caspian Sea, the Caucasus, and existing Eurasian directions creates redundancy, reduces risks, and strengthens the negotiating position of shippers.

The key project in the southern direction remains the trans-Afghan railway corridor Mazar-i-Sharif–Kabul–Peshawar. Its strategic value lies in its potential to connect Uzbekistan and other Central Asian countries with Pakistan’s ports, including Karachi, Qasim, and Gwadar. If implemented, such a corridor could reduce the distance and delivery time for certain types of cargo. However, the project requires the resolution of several complex issues: financing, security, technical parameters, railway gauge compatibility, the operating model, tariffs, and the distribution of risks among participants.

The Termez–Hairatan hub in Uzbekistan has particular significance. It is the closest entry point from Uzbekistan into Afghanistan and is already used as a logistics, humanitarian, and trade channel. The development of terminals, warehouses, customs capacities, multimodal transport services, and digital cargo-control systems could turn this hub into a stable anchor point for interregional trade.

Alongside the trans-Afghan route, the route through Iran is also important. For India, Central Asia, and Afghanistan, the Chabahar port is of particular significance, as are its links with the International North–South Transport Corridor and the Ashgabat Agreement. This option does not replace the trans-Afghan route, but it increases the resilience of the trade system. Events of recent years have shown that the closure or restriction of individual routes quickly increases the importance of alternative pathways through Iran and the countries of Central Asia.

Road corridors remain a necessary complement to railways. They are especially important for perishable products, small consignments, e-commerce, pharmaceuticals, and high-value-added goods. In this area, the key factors are not only roads, but also border procedures, the permit system for carriers, weight control, insurance, the safety of parking areas, and access to backhaul cargo.

The development of air connectivity plays a separate role. Direct flights between Tashkent, Samarkand, Almaty, Astana, Delhi, Mumbai, Lahore, and other cities do not create mass freight logistics, but they reduce barriers to business travel, tourism, education, medical services, and managerial oversight of investment projects. For modern business, such mobility is not a secondary factor, but a systemic one.

5. Energy partnership: from project-based logic to a regional market

Energy is one of the most obvious areas of complementarity between Central and South Asia. The Central Asian countries possess significant resources in natural gas, hydropower, solar power, and wind generation. South Asia, primarily Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, and Afghanistan, faces high energy demand, seasonal consumption peaks, and the need for a more reliable supply structure.

The most advanced interregional project in the electricity sector is CASA-1000. According to World Bank materials, the project is intended to ensure the transmission of up to 1,300 MW of surplus summer electricity from Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan to Afghanistan and Pakistan. The project also provides for high-voltage transmission infrastructure, including power transmission lines and converter stations. Its significance goes beyond the energy sector: it demonstrates the possibility of contract-based electricity trade between the subregions with the participation of international financial institutions.

In the gas sector, the best-known project is TAPI: Turkmenistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan–India. Its planned logic is straightforward: Turkmen gas is expected to flow through Afghanistan to the energy-deficient markets of South Asia. Published descriptions of the project usually indicate a length of approximately 1,800 km and a designed capacity of up to 33 billion cubic meters of gas per year. However, TAPI remains a complex project with a high dependence on security, financing, long-term contracts, payment guarantees, and political coordination among the participants.

CASA-1000 has not only political but also measurable infrastructural significance: the project cost is estimated at approximately US$1.2 billion, while the designed transmission capacity is 1,300 MW. The Kyrgyz component provides for around 456 km of 500 kV power transmission lines. This makes it possible to view CASA-1000 as the first major example of contract-based interregional electricity trade between Central and South Asia^[5][6].

The new energy agenda includes not only the export of fuel and electricity, but also the development of low-carbon solutions. Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan are expanding projects in solar, wind, and hydropower, while also modernizing their grids. In the long term, South Asia could become a market for seasonal electricity and energy services from Central Asia. However, this requires rules for cross-border trade, compatible dispatch mechanisms, commercial guarantees, transparent tariffs, and investment in grid resilience.

Energy cooperation must take into account climate and water-related factors. In Central Asia, hydropower is closely linked to irrigation and water resource management. In South Asia, electricity demand depends on temperature peaks, urbanization, and industrial growth. Therefore, energy projects should be accompanied by mechanisms for climate adaptation, forecasting water availability, improving energy efficiency, and developing energy storage systems.

6. Investment cooperation and business ties

Investment cooperation between Central and South Asia is still developing on a case-by-case basis, but it has significant potential. Unlike trade in raw materials, investment requires a higher level of trust, legal certainty, protection of property rights, clear tax regimes, access to foreign-exchange settlements, and high-quality business information.

The most promising areas include pharmaceuticals, medical services, agro-processing, textiles, logistics, warehouse infrastructure, IT services, education, tourism, financial technologies, renewable energy, and the production of components for infrastructure projects. South Asian companies have strong competencies in IT, pharmaceuticals, and services, while Central Asia offers access to raw materials, industrial sites, growing domestic markets, and transit opportunities.

An important task is to move from one-off business contacts to a systematic investment pipeline. This requires project catalogues, clear requirements for investors, standardized public-private partnership models, dispute-resolution mechanisms, insurance against political and commercial risks, and joint workforce training programs.

Small and medium-sized enterprises are of particular importance. Large infrastructure projects create the foundation, but it is small and medium-sized businesses that fill corridors with real goods and services. For them, access to information, affordable logistics services, digital marketplaces, simplified payments, standardized documents, and support in entering a new market are critical.

Development institutions and international financial organizations can play a catalytic role. Their participation reduces risks, improves the quality of project preparation, and disciplines the participants. However, external financing does not replace national reforms. Without clear rules, transparent statistics, and effective courts, even concessional loans will not create a sustainable flow of investment.

7. The strategic role of Uzbekistan as a connector state

Uzbekistan possesses a unique set of preconditions for playing the role of a connector state. It is located at the center of Central Asia, borders all the countries of the region as well as Afghanistan, and is also a major demographic and industrial market. For a country without access to the sea, the development of external corridors is not an optional task, but a condition for long-term competitiveness.

Uzbekistan’s role is not limited to transit. A transit country earns revenue from the movement of goods, but a connector state shapes rules, services, trust, and the institutional environment. This means developing multimodal hubs, creating logistics centers, digitalizing customs procedures, expanding railway and road links, training personnel, attracting banks and insurance organizations, and providing analytical support for projects.

The southern direction strengthens Uzbekistan’s foreign economic diversification. It complements the country’s already existing links in the northern, eastern, and western directions. At the same time, the diversification of routes reduces dependence on individual markets and transit pathways, which is especially important amid instability in global trade, changes in tariff policy, and geopolitical restrictions.

Termez occupies a special place in this strategy. It can serve as a border logistics center, a platform for trade with Afghanistan, a hub of humanitarian and commercial infrastructure, and a symbolic space for discussing connectivity between Central and South Asia. To turn this role into a sustainable result, investment is needed in terminals, railway approaches, warehouse capacity, services for carriers, and a system for analyzing cargo flows.

Uzbekistan’s strength also lies in its ability to put forward multilateral initiatives. Interregional connectivity cannot be implemented through bilateral agreements alone. It requires the alignment of interests among the countries of Central Asia, the countries of South Asia, Afghanistan, international financial institutions, business, and the expert community. In this sphere, Uzbekistan can act as a coordinator of the agenda and a provider of analytical solutions.

8. Key barriers and ways to overcome them

The first barrier is incomplete infrastructure. Many corridors exist in the form of project concepts or partially functioning routes. To transform them into commercially sustainable directions, technical and economic feasibility studies, agreed tariffs, clear sources of financing, unified operational models, and transparent risk allocation are required.

The second barrier is security and the predictability of transit. For business, what matters is not only the length of the route, but also the likelihood of delays, losses, border closures, changes in rules, and additional payments. Therefore, transport policy should include insurance mechanisms, security standards, corridor monitoring, crisis protocols, and regular information exchange among government agencies.

The third barrier is administrative fragmentation. Different documents, uncoordinated customs procedures, weak advance declaration, the absence of mutual recognition of certain certificates, and limited digital interoperability increase the cost of trade. The solution lies in the transition to electronic transport documents, the expansion of the single-window principle, the introduction of risk-based control, and the coordination of technical standards.

The scale of the financial challenge can be assessed through the example of CAREC: in 2021–2024, transport investment under the program amounted to US$8.61 billion, with a significant share of financing provided by international partners. This shows that infrastructure corridors require not only a political decision, but also a sustainable financial architecture^[7][8].

Administrative barriers have a measurable expression. According to CAREC monitoring, in 2022, the average border-crossing time on road corridors was 9.9 hours, while on railway corridors it was 40.6 hours. This confirms that the digitalization of documents, advance declaration, and risk-based control can produce an effect even without the immediate construction of new arterial routes.

The fourth barrier is financial constraints. Infrastructure projects require large capital investments and have long payback periods. A combination of budget funds, loans from international financial organizations, public-private partnerships, guarantees, project financing, and blended-finance mechanisms is needed. At the same time, each project must undergo an assessment of commercial viability, not only political attractiveness.

The fifth barrier is the lack of market information. Companies often do not know potential partners, market requirements, logistics tariffs, certification rules, or available financial instruments. This barrier can be reduced through digital trade platforms, business missions, sectoral catalogues, regular exhibitions, analytical reviews, and consulting centers under chambers of commerce and industry.

The sixth barrier is climate and resource-related risks. Mountainous areas, droughts, floods, changes in glacial runoff, and extreme weather events affect roads, energy, and agriculture. New corridors should be designed with climate resilience in mind, while energy projects should take into account the water balance and the seasonality of demand.

Practical priorities through 2030

9. The Termez Dialogue as an institutional foundation for cooperation

The Termez Dialogue on Connectivity between Central and South Asia can become an important institutional platform for coordinating the interregional agenda. In 2025, the first dialogue was held in Termez, dedicated to the formation of a shared space of peace, friendship, and prosperity. The very choice of Termez emphasizes the city’s practical role as Uzbekistan’s southern hub and as a symbolic point of connection with Afghanistan and South Asia.

The effectiveness of such a format will depend on whether it can move from general statements to the management of a project-based agenda. For this purpose, it would be advisable to structure the dialogue around four permanent tracks: transport and logistics, trade and standards, energy and climate, and investment and human capital. Each track should have a project map, progress indicators, responsible participants, and a mechanism for annual updates.

The participation of business is of particular importance. States can sign framework documents, but real demand for corridors is generated by exporters, importers, carriers, banks, insurance companies, terminal operators, and manufacturing enterprises. Therefore, within the framework of the Termez Dialogue, business sessions, B2B platforms, sectoral presentations, and discussions of specific barriers faced by companies are necessary.

The expert track should serve as an evidence base. It can prepare an annual report on the state of connectivity between Central and South Asia, a corridor-readiness index, monitoring of transportation time and costs, a review of regulatory barriers, analysis of investment projects, and recommendations for governments. In this area, Uzbekistan’s analytical institutions can play a leading role.

The Termez Dialogue is also important as an instrument for involving Afghanistan in economic processes on a pragmatic basis. This is not a matter of political legitimization, but of reducing economic isolation, developing transit procedures, supporting sustainable livelihoods, and creating incentives for stability. This logic corresponds to the interests of all participants, since Afghanistan’s economic predictability directly affects the cost and security of interregional routes.

10. Connectivity and the Sustainable Development Goals

Economic connectivity between Central and South Asia is directly linked to the UN Sustainable Development Goals. The development of energy networks supports SDG 7, the expansion of trade and employment corresponds to SDG 8, the construction of resilient infrastructure is linked to SDG 9, the reduction of spatial isolation contributes to SDG 10, climate resilience relates to SDG 13, and regional coordination and partnerships correspond to SDG 16 and SDG 17.

However, the link with the SDGs does not arise automatically. Infrastructure can promote development, but it can also deepen inequality if benefits accrue only to major actors while local communities bear the costs. Therefore, projects should include environmental assessment, social safeguards, consultations with the population, management of land-related issues, occupational safety measures, and transparent compensation mechanisms.

Special attention should be paid to women, youth, and small enterprises. New corridors create demand for services in logistics, trade, catering, repair, digital support, education, and tourism. If access to these opportunities is opened to local entrepreneurs, infrastructure will become a source of inclusive growth, not merely transit rent.

Climate risk is already becoming an economic factor. According to World Bank estimates, by 2030, nearly 90% of South Asia’s population may be exposed to intense heat, while more than one fifth of the population may face the risk of severe flooding. For Central Asia, the key constraint is water: in Uzbekistan, the volume of water withdrawal significantly exceeds internal renewable resources, and the current water deficit may increase to 7 billion m³ by 2030 and to 15 billion m³ by 2050^[9][10][11].

The climate dimension of connectivity is becoming increasingly important. South Asia and Central Asia are exposed to the risks of extreme weather events, glacier melt, droughts, floods, and tensions around water. Therefore, new roads, railways, power transmission lines, and logistics centers should be designed with long-term climate scenarios in mind. For the energy sector, this means combining electricity trade, energy efficiency, renewable sources, and grid resilience.

From the standpoint of sustainable development, the most promising model is not one of raw-material transit, but one of value-added creation. This implies agro-processing, industrial cooperation, service chains, digital trade, the localization of selected industries, and workforce training. In this case, connectivity is transformed from the movement of goods into a mechanism of structural modernization.

11. Conclusion

Economic connectivity between Central and South Asia is one of the key conditions for the sustainable development of the macroregion. It is capable of expanding sales markets, reducing transport isolation, strengthening energy security, supporting employment, and creating new incentives for regional stability. At the same time, the expected effect depends not on a single project, but on a coordinated package of measures.

The main practical conclusion is the need for a portfolio approach. The trans-Afghan railway, the route through Iran, road corridors, air connectivity, the CASA-1000 and TAPI energy projects, trade digitalization, logistics hubs, and investment platforms should be viewed as mutually complementary elements. Each of them has different implementation timelines, risks, and economic logic; therefore, the regional strategy should ensure redundancy and flexibility.

Uzbekistan has objective advantages for the role of a connector state. Its geography, demographic potential, industrial base, southern hub in Termez, and active foreign economic agenda make it possible to bring together the interests of Central and South Asia.

The Termez Dialogue can become a platform where political will is translated into project-level discipline. For this to happen, it should generate not only declarations, but also a list of projects, indicators, road maps, evaluation mechanisms, and permanent channels of interaction among business, experts, and government agencies.

In the long term, connectivity between Central and South Asia should be oriented not only toward increasing trade volumes, but also toward improving the quality of development. A sustainable macroregion will take shape where infrastructure is connected with institutions, energy with climate responsibility, trade with industrial cooperation, and diplomatic initiatives with evidence-based analysis and practical results.

Muhammad Babadjanov,

Head of Department

at The Institute for Macroeconomic and Regional Studies

under the Cabinet of Ministers of the Republic of Uzbekistan

[1] https://www.worldbank.org/en/programs/south-asia-regional-integration/trade

[2] https://data.worldbank.org/?locations=TJ-UZ-KZ-TM-KG

[3] https://data.worldbank.org/country/south-asia

[4] https://uzembassy.kz/en/article/the-mazar-i-sharif-kabul-peshawar-railway-will-open-up-broad-prospects-for-international-trade

[5] https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/afghanistan/brief/updated-q-a-on-casa-1000-resumption-in-afghanistan

[6] https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2023/11/01/additional-financing-for-casa-1000-project-for-the-kyrgyz-republic

[7] https://www.carecprogram.org/uploads/03-CAREC-Transport-Strategy-2030-Midterm-Review-Draft-Report.pdf

[8] https://cpmm.carecprogram.org/2022-report/key-results/

[9] https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2025/06/03/climate-resilience-in-south-asia-will-be-private-sector-led

[10] https://data.worldbank.org/country/uzbekistan

[11] https://www.adb.org/news/features/numbers-climate-change-central-asia