Ahead of U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s planned visit to Samarkand for the C5+1 summit, the Center for Economic Research and Reforms has examined the outlook for the Central Asia–U.S. platform and opportunities to further expand Uzbek-American cooperation.

History of Visits

Visits by U.S. secretaries of state to Uzbekistan date back to February 1992. John Kerry’s visit to Samarkand on November 1, 2015, was particularly significant: it brought together the foreign ministers of the five Central Asian countries and the United States for the first time, launching the C5+1 platform. Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s upcoming trip continues the established practice of combining bilateral talks with regional dialogue.

The U.S. secretary of state is expected to arrive in Samarkand in mid-October 2026, leading a delegation representing more than 200 American companies. A C5+1 ministerial meeting has been announced, with the foreign ministers of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan set to participate. Its stated priorities are regional economic connectivity, energy security, and joint responses to shared regional challenges. Talks with Uzbekistan’s leadership are also planned.

For Uzbekistan, the visit offers an opportunity to advance projects already agreed upon, attract technology, and improve access to international capital. The scale of the announced business delegation provides additional scope to pursue these objectives.

The Evolution of Central Asia Plus Frameworks

Regional frameworks involving external partners are becoming a regular feature of Central Asian diplomacy. In April 2025, Samarkand hosted the first Central Asia–European Union summit, which elevated relations to a strategic partnership. The second summit with China took place in Astana in June of the same year, followed by the first summit with Japan in Tokyo in December and the first summit with the Republic of Korea in Seoul in September 2026.

These platforms share much of their economic agenda: transportation, energy, critical raw materials, industry, and digital technology.

The C5+1 platform provides a dedicated channel for engagement with American businesses and financial institutions. Established in 2015, it covers the economy, energy and the environment, and security. A regional approach allows participants to address issues that extend beyond any single country, including transit, cross-border infrastructure, and supply chain resilience.

Bringing the five countries and prospective American investors together on one platform helps align national projects with the regional conditions needed to implement them.

Outcomes of the First C5+1 Summit

The first presidential-level C5+1 summit took place in New York on September 19, 2023. The inaugural Critical Minerals Dialogue followed in February 2024, and the first B5+1 business forum was held in Almaty in March. The latter created a channel for businesses to contribute to discussions on the investment climate and regional economic integration. The political platform thus gained both an industry-focused mechanism and a forum for business engagement.

The summit held at the White House on November 6, 2025, strengthened the commercial dimension of cooperation. According to the U.S. Department of Commerce, trade and investment agreements worth more than $25 billion across Central Asia were announced at the accompanying business conference. They cover aviation, agricultural machinery, rail infrastructure, digital technology, and critical minerals extraction.

At the summit, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev proposed closer coordination on investment and trade, the development of transport and energy projects linking Central Asia with the South Caucasus and Europe, and cooperation in the exploration, extraction, and value-added processing of critical minerals. His proposals also included holding the next summit in Samarkand.

The practical question for the next stage is whether high-level decisions are backed by adequate project preparation and financing. In aviation, this means aircraft delivery and operation; in industry, the construction and commissioning of production facilities; and in raw materials, the adoption of processing technologies and agreements with buyers.

Bilateral Meetings and New Investment Mechanisms

Regional cooperation rests on direct dialogue between Uzbekistan and the United States. During Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s official visit to the United States in May 2018, he held talks with U.S. President Donald Trump at the White House, and the two countries adopted a joint statement marking the start of a “new era of strategic partnership.” The presidents met again in New York in September 2025 and held talks in Washington on November 6. In February 2026, the Uzbek president visited the U.S. capital for the inaugural meeting of the Board of Peace, with new bilateral agreements signed as part of the visit’s business program.

One outcome of the November talks was the establishment of the U.S.–Uzbekistan Business and Investment Council. It is co-chaired by Saida Mirziyoyeva, Head of Uzbekistan’s Presidential Administration, and Sergio Gor on the American side. The Council’s responsibilities include supporting major trade and investment projects, monitoring the implementation of agreements, mobilizing financing, and promoting the services of IT Park resident companies, among other tasks.

The initial public offering (IPO) of the Uzbekistan National Investment Fund, or UzNIF, opened another channel to international capital. Its global depositary receipts were admitted to trading on the London Stock Exchange on May 18, 2026. Managed by Franklin Templeton since 2025, the fund holds stakes in 13 state-owned enterprises. For Uzbek-American cooperation, its significance lies in the involvement of an American investment manager in transforming a portfolio of state-owned assets and improving access to global equity markets.

BlackRock represents another area of engagement. In Davos in January 2026, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev discussed the acquisition of stakes in Uzbek enterprises and joint investment projects with BlackRock’s leadership. At a meeting in Tashkent on July 7, the priorities identified included privatization, financial markets, the fuel and energy sector, petrochemicals, and artificial intelligence technologies. These talks broaden opportunities for engagement with institutional investors.

A significant step has also been taken in cooperation with the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC). In February 2026, the parties agreed on the key terms for establishing a joint investment partnership. On June 16, DFC announced the launch of a U.S.–Uzbekistan investment platform involving the U.S. Export-Import Bank, Uzbekistan’s Ministry of Investment, Industry and Trade, and its Fund for Reconstruction and Development.

The platform’s priorities include energy, critical minerals, infrastructure, transportation and logistics, advanced manufacturing, information and communications technology, and pharmaceuticals. It is designed to attract private capital and participation from other financial institutions. Its significance lies in creating a mechanism to select and finance projects. This gives the October meeting a concrete basis for discussions on individual projects, their readiness, and the terms of partner participation.

Critical Minerals and Processing Opportunities

In September 2024, Uzbekistan and the United States signed a memorandum on a critical minerals partnership linked to initiatives from the 2023 C5+1 summit. In February 2026, the two countries signed an intergovernmental memorandum at the ministerial level on securing supplies through the extraction and processing of critical minerals and rare earth elements.

For Uzbekistan, the greatest returns are likely to come from developing production with higher added value. Where feasible, extraction should be complemented by ore beneficiation and further processing to produce materials that meet industrial customers’ requirements. The extent of processing, access to technology, training for local specialists, and the share of operations carried out domestically are therefore important considerations in evaluating joint projects.

Trade Trends and the Structure of Economic Ties

According to Uzbekistan’s National Statistics Committee, trade between Uzbekistan and the United States increased 4.7-fold between 2017 and 2025, from $215 million to approximately $1 billion. Exports rose from $32.1 million to $291.7 million, while imports increased from $182.9 million to $712.3 million. This trend reflects expanding ties, with purchases of American goods and services continuing to account for the larger share of bilateral trade.

In January–August 2026, bilateral trade reached $810.4 million, up 33.4% from the same period in 2025. Uzbekistan’s exports totaled $304.5 million, an increase of 59.9%, while imports reached $506 million, up 21.3%. The U.S. share of Uzbekistan’s total foreign trade rose from 1.1% to 1.4%.

Services accounted for $224.8 million, or 73.8%, of exports during the first eight months of 2026. Machinery and transport equipment contributed $44.8 million, while mineral fuels and related products accounted for $17.6 million. Machinery and transport equipment were the largest import category at $272.5 million, or 53.9%, followed by services at $84.1 million and chemical products at $73.5 million.

As of September 1, 2026, 377 companies with American investment were operating in Uzbekistan. The American business presence and joint projects span manufacturing and mining, energy and petrochemicals, agriculture, construction, and services, including information technology.

Total foreign direct investment and loans attracted from the United States exceeded $2.9 billion over 2017–2025. The annual figure rose from $8.6 million in 2017 to $383.2 million in 2025.

Conclusion

Given the announced agenda and the mechanisms already established, the most likely focus of the talks is advancing investment projects, energy infrastructure, and regional connectivity.

The partnership’s further development depends primarily on implementing the agreements already reached. Investment and modern technology create opportunities to upgrade production, raise productivity, and expand exports. For Uzbekistan, the long-term value of this cooperation lies in strengthening its industrial capacity, creating skilled jobs, and reaching new markets.

Regional dialogue also complements bilateral engagement by enabling countries to address transportation, energy, and trade issues together. Coordinated work in these areas can improve business conditions and make economic ties more resilient. The upcoming talks offer an opportunity to identify the next priorities and translate the existing partnership into further practical cooperation.

Overall, C5+1 allows Uzbekistan to connect its bilateral relations with regional transport and energy priorities, broaden its investor base, and strengthen its participation in international production networks. The forthcoming meeting in Samarkand could consolidate this shift toward project implementation.

Khurshed Asadov
Deputy Director of the Center for Economic Research and Reforms