The first quarter proved highly favorable for Uzbekistan’s economy. Economic growth reached 8.7%, inflation fell to its lowest level in recent years, investment hit a record high, and exports continued to expand steadily.

Economic Growth Dynamics

The pace of economic growth achieved by Uzbekistan in the first quarter exceeded the expectations of international institutions. The Asian Development Bank had projected 6.7% growth for the first quarter. The World Bank initially forecast 6.0%, but revised it upward to 6.4% in April. The IMF also raised its forecast in April from 6.2% to 6.8%.

In practice, Uzbekistan’s economy grew by 8.7%. GDP in current prices amounted to $36.9 bn. The forecast closest to the actual result came from the Center for Economic Research and Reforms (Uzbekistan), which projected first-quarter growth of up to 7% at the beginning of the year.

The strongest growth was recorded in construction, where gross value added increased by 15.0%. The services sector expanded by 8.8%, retaining its position as the largest segment of the economy. Industry grew by 8.0%, while agriculture increased by 5.1%.

Significant gains were also seen in oil refining, up 29.5%. In light industry, apparel and textile production rose by 15.3%, while knitwear output increased by 26.9%. In automotive manufacturing, production expanded by 12.5%, including buses by 64.7% and trucks by 46.6%. Within services, the highest growth rates were recorded in education, up 22.5%, and financial services, up 22.4%.

An important contribution to overall growth also came from measures aimed at reducing the shadow economy. Its share declined from 24.8% to 22.9%, while legalized business activity supported higher recorded growth figures.

Another major factor behind accelerated growth has been the country’s active market reforms, which were recognized this year in the Index of Economic Freedom, where Uzbekistan rose by 14 positions and entered the category of moderately free economies for the first time.

Overcoming Inflationary Challenges

External pressures continue to affect domestic price formation. Global oil prices have risen by 40% since the beginning of the year. Geopolitical tensions have disrupted logistics corridors, increasing transportation costs for trade flows by 25–30%. As a result of these disruptions, imports of cattle into Uzbekistan fell by half in the first quarter, creating risks for food security.

To stabilize food prices, the government introduced partial reimbursement of air freight costs for imports of breeding livestock and meat products. It also approved the import of 100,000 breeding sheep and goats from Mongolia with compensation of 50% of transport costs.

Since the beginning of the year, Uzbekistan has actively implemented a new system of inflation management and price stability. For all responsible officials and regional governors, the key task for 2026 has been defined as maintaining stable prices for essential food products and keeping annual inflation below 6.5%.

As a result of these measures, despite external pressures, the inflation environment improved significantly in the first quarter. Consumer prices rose by 1.93% in January–March. In March alone, monthly inflation stood at 0.6%, while annual inflation fell to 7.1% for the first time, compared with 10.34% a year earlier.

Budget Policy and Regional Development

Thanks to such dynamic economic growth, Uzbekistan’s State Budget revenues also increased steadily in the first quarter, rising by 35% year-on-year. Tax revenues grew by 24%, while customs revenues increased by 20% compared with the same period last year.

Funds retained by local budgets rose by 21%. In addition, land sales and privatization processes generated an extra $47.1 mn for local budgets. At the same time, $90.6 mn were transferred from the republican budget to local budgets to support the regions. As a result, district-level local budgets retained $115.3 mn, nearly 4.2 times more than the $28.5 mn recorded in the same period last year.

This demonstrates the continued and consistent policy course toward expanding the financial autonomy of the regions, helping unlock local potential and support dynamic regional development.

Investment Outlook

Investment activity in Uzbekistan reached a record level in the first quarter. Capital investment and development projects totaled $12.85 bn, up 41.5%. Foreign direct investment increased by 45.7% to $8.84 bn. During the quarter, 1,508 new projects worth $1.185 bn were launched, creating around 28,000 new jobs.

In the first quarter, investment volumes exceeded $50 mn in 50 cities and districts, while in 21 of them the figure surpassed $100 mn, indicating broader regional investment activity. By source of foreign investment, China ranked first with $6.4 bn, followed by Russia with $1.1 bn, Türkiye with $975 mn, the UAE with $824 mn, and Germany with $342 mn.

Overall, in 2026 Uzbekistan plans to implement 125 projects with the participation of international financial institutions and foreign state financial organizations, attracting $5.1 bn. In the first quarter alone, $947 mn in foreign loans had already been mobilized from these sources, exceeding forecast targets by 120%. These projects have already delivered tangible results in infrastructure development and improved living standards.

The next important step in attracting investment may be the listing of state assets on international markets. Speaking at the meeting, the President announced that 30% of state assets worth $2.4 bn would soon be placed on international stock exchanges for the first time. This is linked to the establishment of the National Investment Fund and the transfer of management of 13 strategic enterprises to Franklin Templeton.

The country’s overall target for this year is to attract $53 bn in foreign investment. Officials were also instructed to introduce an AI-based platform that would provide optimal project recommendations for specific regions. Investors and consulting companies will be granted access to the platform through a one-stop-shop mechanism.

Growing Export Potential

Total exports of goods and services maintained strong growth momentum in the first quarter, reaching $5.8 bn, up 26% year-on-year, or by $1.2 bn. Export growth was recorded in 147 districts and cities across the country. As a result, the total number of exporting enterprises reached 4,000.

In particular, exports of natural uranium amounted to $402.6 mn, up 95%. Exports of non-ferrous metals reached $248.7 mn, doubling year-on-year. Oil and gas exports totaled $160 mn, up 15%.

Positive dynamics were also observed in manufacturing. Textile exports reached $731 mn, up 18%. Exports of construction materials totaled $304 mn, rising by 75%. Jewelry exports reached $214 mn, up 54%.

Agricultural and food exports also posted solid growth. Fruit and vegetable exports reached $320 mn, up 12%. Food exports totaled $282 mn, surging by 120%. Strong momentum was also seen in services, where exports reached $2.2 bn, up 35% year-on-year, or by $573 mn.

The geography of exports continues to expand. In January–March, previously non-exported goods worth $162 mn across more than 140 product categories were supplied for the first time to 86 countries, including the United States, Austria, Belarus, Poland, South Korea, Iran, Kazakhstan, and Afghanistan.

Despite these achievements, external market challenges continue to affect exporters. The President noted that over the past six months, due to changing conditions among foreign partners, 908 entrepreneurs with signed contracts worth $3.6 bn had still been unable to begin exports.

Support for Entrepreneurship

Active support for small and medium-sized businesses continued in the first quarter. This year, $11.5 bn is being allocated through banks for this purpose. In the first quarter, entrepreneurs received $2.9 bn in credit resources, including $659 mn under state support programs. A total of 21,000 microprojects were implemented, helping raise incomes for 52,000 residents.

At the same time, certain shortcomings remain. Not all districts and cities are equally effective in converting loans into permanent jobs, and the differences are considerable. To address this issue, the President emphasized the need to use AI tools in credit allocation and instructed banks to launch an “AI Consultant” platform.

The meeting also discussed optimization of government administrations and the creation of new business spaces. Since many central and busy streets in district centers are occupied by state institutions, 19 districts and cities have already begun relocating government offices into unified administrative centers, with vacated premises transferred to businesses. Scaling up these measures nationwide would free up 5 mn m2 of space for business activity.

Social Policy

A strong social policy and active measures to reduce poverty and promote employment continued in the first quarter.

Permanent jobs were provided to 167,000 people, while 737,000 citizens received assistance in creating additional income sources and improving their living standards. An important contribution came from formalizing 241,000 previously informal workers, giving them access to social protection, financial services, and stable employment.

Special attention in social policy is being given to low-income families. A total of 105,000 support services were delivered to 86,000 vulnerable families, including employment assistance, training, business start-up support, and income generation. Under women’s support programs, 26,000 women were employed, while youth support programs benefited 58,000 young citizens.

To accelerate development in territories facing difficult socio-economic conditions, $297 mn were allocated from the republican budget. Additional support of $329 mn was also directed to areas granted the status of “New Image of Uzbekistan.”

These policies continue to contribute to lower poverty and higher living standards. Poverty fell to 5.0% in the first quarter, while unemployment stood at 4.7%. According to forecasts, both indicators may decline further to 4.3% by mid-year.

Significant attention is also being paid to social infrastructure and improving living conditions with the active participation of international financial institutions. In the first quarter, 89 km of drinking water networks, 8.2 km of sewerage networks, and 40 km of roads were built.

These measures are creating a sustainable foundation for further poverty reduction, stronger employment, higher welfare, and better living conditions across all regions of Uzbekistan.

Perspectives

It is useful to compare Uzbekistan’s first-quarter growth performance with the global economy and other countries.

In its April forecast, the IMF lowered projected global growth from 3.3% in January to 3.1% in April. Growth in advanced economies is expected at 1.5–1.6%, while developing economies are projected at above 4%. US growth is forecast at 2.0–2.1%, while Europe is expected to remain the weakest region, with UK growth revised downward to 0.8%.

The IMF identified India as the fastest-growing major economy, with projected growth of 7.3%. Yet Uzbekistan’s first-quarter growth exceeded even that figure, reaching 8.7%. This reflects the soundness and effectiveness of ongoing reforms, as well as strong and responsive economic management, where emerging challenges are addressed without delay.

Uzbekistan is expected to maintain high growth momentum in 2026. Real GDP growth is projected in the range of 8.3–8.7%, with services rising by 9.1%, industry by 8.7%, and construction by 11.5%.

At the same time, despite these positive results, the President noted that there is no room for complacency. Against the backdrop of intensifying global rivalry, the world economy will no longer be as stable as before. This requires special focus in the current year on sustaining growth, containing inflation, creating jobs, expanding exports, and improving the quality of investment.

Khurshed Asadov, Deputy Director of the Center for Economic Research and Reforms under the Administration of the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan

Хуршед Асадов, ЦЭИР

Samarkand Forum of the Asian Development Bank
In the Context of Contemporary Challenges and Historical Significance

In early May, Samarkand hosted the 59th Annual Meeting of the Board of Governors of the Asian Development Bank under the theme “Crossroads of Progress: Advancing the Region’s Connected Future.” The President of the Republic of Uzbekistan, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, outlined key priorities for further cooperation with the ADB.

The forum brought together more than 4,000 experts from over 100 countries, including representatives of foreign governments, international financial institutions, leading banks, and major corporations. The central topics of discussion included digital and green transformation, climate resilience, supply chain development, and food security.

Uzbekistan and the Asian Development Bank: Effective Partnership

Uzbekistan joined the ADB in 1995. Over the past 30 years, the Bank has become a reliable strategic partner for the country. The current portfolio of joint projects has reached nearly $16 billion. Uzbekistan has become the Bank’s largest partner in the region by operational volume and ranks among the top 10 countries globally in terms of ADB operations.

In August 2024, the ADB launched a new Country Partnership Strategy for Uzbekistan for 2024–2028. This five-year strategy focuses on supporting the transition to a green economy, enhancing private sector development and competitiveness, and stimulating investment in human capital, in line with the national development priorities outlined in the “Uzbekistan–2030” strategy.

ADB financing across sectors is distributed as follows: transport – $3.1 billion; energy – $2.9 billion; water supply, sanitation, and urban services – $1.4 billion; agriculture and water resources – $0.9 billion.

Through effective cooperation with the ADB, more than 1,400 km of railway lines and 1,700 km of roads have been modernized. Over 4,000 km of water supply networks have been completed, and around 750 educational institutions have been upgraded. In 2025, a record annual commitment volume exceeding $1.4 billion was achieved.

New Cooperation Program with Uzbekistan

During the Samarkand forum, a new partnership program between Uzbekistan and the ADB through 2030 was adopted. It envisages the implementation of projects totaling $12.5 billion, including infrastructure development, support for reforms, private sector growth, and public-private partnerships.

Key components include: infrastructure financing – $2.6 billion; results-based lending – $2.2 billion; budget support for reforms – $3.3 billion; multitranche financing facilities – $350 million; partial credit guarantees – $250 million; direct private sector financing – $2 billion; PPP projects – $1.7 billion.

Priority Areas Outlined by the President

In his address, the President of Uzbekistan emphasized the need to introduce new mechanisms and approaches for sustainable development amid global economic challenges and rapid technological change.

First, digital technologies and artificial intelligence are transforming virtually all sectors. By 2040, AI is expected to increase global trade volumes by an additional 40%. The adoption of open AI models is therefore essential in key sectors such as education, healthcare, water management, environmental protection, and food security. Uzbekistan proposed developing a dedicated ADB-led program to scale AI adoption in developing countries and announced its accession to the Bank’s “Digital Highway for Asia” initiative, including the establishment of a regional coordination center in Tashkent.

Second, the expansion of digital technologies and AI is driving a sharp increase in energy demand. By 2030, electricity consumption by data centers is projected to rise by 2–3 times compared to current levels. Only countries capable of providing affordable and reliable green energy will remain competitive globally. Uzbekistan identified green energy development as a strategic priority and acknowledged ADB support for the “Central Asia–Europe” green energy corridor aimed at expanding clean energy exports.

Third, ensuring the connectivity of transport systems and the stability of logistics corridors is becoming increasingly critical. Changes in global logistics routes have already led to transport cost increases of up to 30% for Central Asian countries, with delivery times extended by several weeks. In this context, the China–Kyrgyzstan–Uzbekistan railway project is of particular importance. Uzbekistan proposed establishing a “Digital Customs and Logistics Alliance” within the CAREC framework.

Fourth, according to international experts, demand for critical minerals will increase sixfold by 2040. Uzbekistan possesses significant reserves of copper, tungsten, molybdenum, magnesium, graphite, vanadium, titanium, and other resources. To ensure deep processing and production of high value-added goods, Uzbekistan proposed joining the ADB’s “From Critical Minerals to Production” program.

Fifth, climate change and desertification pose serious challenges to Central Asia. The ADB is implementing its Climate Action Plan through 2030, allocating at least 50% of its annual financing to climate-related projects. Uzbekistan proposed launching a regional “Green Belt of Central Asia” initiative to complement national afforestation efforts in the Aral Sea region.

Sixth, amid global instability, demand for safe travel destinations is growing. Central Asia has strong potential in pilgrimage, cultural, gastronomic, ethnographic, extreme, and medical tourism. Uzbekistan proposed creating a “Central Asia Tourist Ring” to integrate regional tourism offerings.

To advance these initiatives, Uzbekistan aims to fully utilize ADB financial instruments, including mobilizing private capital, and proposed establishing an Innovative Platform for Financing Regional Projects.

Transformation of ADB Operations

The implementation of these initiatives requires a transformation of the ADB’s institutional model. In response to global economic shifts, rapid technological change, and increasing interdependence, the Bank is shifting its focus toward sustainability, regional integration, and future-oriented infrastructure.

A key direction is the expansion of investments in next-generation infrastructure, including cross-border energy networks, electricity trade, and digital infrastructure such as internet connectivity and data transmission networks.

Another major shift is the transition from financing predominantly national projects to prioritizing regional systems. This includes integrating energy systems, developing regional electricity markets, and advancing digital integration across Asia.

These priorities are reflected in two major initiatives announced at the Samarkand forum, totaling $70 billion through 2035, aimed at energy system integration, cross-border electricity trade, digital corridors, data centers, and broadband expansion across Asia and the Pacific.

A significant announcement was also the launch of the “Critical Minerals-to-Manufacturing Financing Partnership Facility,” covering the full value chain from exploration and resource mapping to the production of final goods, including chemicals, batteries, renewable energy components, electronics, as well as recycling and reuse.

For Uzbekistan, this approach is particularly relevant, as the country is already developing value chains based on its mineral resources. The ADB program is expected to accelerate this process significantly.

Overall, the transformation of the ADB reflects a shift toward supporting systemic resilience and regional markets. This includes three key transitions: from individual projects to integrated economic systems; from national to regional focus; and from development support to long-term economic sustainability.

As a result, the ADB is evolving from a project financing institution into a coordinating platform for regional economic connectivity, strengthening its role in Asia’s integration amid the formation of competing global economic blocs.

Conclusion

The 59th Annual Meeting of the ADB Board of Governors in Samarkand was of significant importance not only for Uzbekistan due to its international prestige and the adoption of a new cooperation program, but also for the entire Asia-Pacific region.

The forum marked the launch of two major initiatives and the new “From Critical Minerals to Production” program, reflecting the Bank’s updated strategy aimed at enhancing economic stability and regional consolidation in Asia.

Holding the forum in Samarkand is symbolic. Historically a crossroads of trade and culture between East and West, the city once again serves as a focal point for shaping the region’s future.

It was here that initiatives and decisions were announced that may influence the development trajectory of all Asia, reinforcing Samarkand’s role as a platform for dialogue and strategic vision.

Viktor Abaturov,
Center for Economic Research and Reforms